Estimating consumer preferences with bundle sales data

Learn how to use bundle sales data to estimate consumer preferences with EM and Monte Carlo algorithms. Practical guide for retailers and

viernes, 3 de julio de 2026 • 2 min read • Q2BSTUDIO Team

Utility model for estimating consumer valuations

In the modern retail world, pricing and product bundle selection has become an art backed by data science. When consumers purchase bundles or sets of items, traditional preference estimation methods, such as discrete choice models, fall short. This is because information about the value each customer assigns to individual products remains hidden behind the bundled purchase. However, thanks to advanced artificial intelligence techniques and machine learning algorithms, it is possible to recover this valuable information. An effective approach involves formulating a utility model for purchase decisions and, using the expectation-maximization (EM) algorithm along with Monte Carlo simulations, estimating the distribution of consumer valuations from data censored by polyhedral regions. This method not only allows handling non-additive bundles —where synergies between products exist— but also manages hidden market segments and the absence of observable purchases. For companies seeking to implement such solutions, having custom applications is essential. At Q2BSTUDIO we develop custom software that integrates advanced estimation models, tailored to the specific needs of each business, whether in the retail sector or any other industry where product bundling is a key strategy.

Recovering preferences from bundled sales data has direct implications for profitability: knowing each segment's willingness to pay allows adjusting prices, designing optimal bundles, and avoiding cannibalization. To achieve this, it is necessary to handle large transaction volumes and apply AI for businesses techniques that automate the inference process. For example, AI agents can analyze purchasing patterns in real time and suggest dynamic adjustments to the offered bundles. Additionally, the technological infrastructure must be robust: the AWS and Azure cloud services we offer at Q2BSTUDIO ensure scalability and availability to process millions of transactions without latency. Cybersecurity also plays a crucial role, as customer data and their preferences are sensitive assets that must be protected with pentesting and advanced security measures.

To complement these capabilities, business intelligence services such as Power BI allow visualizing estimated valuation distributions and purchasing patterns, facilitating strategic decision-making. At Q2BSTUDIO we integrate these tools with our developments, providing customized dashboards that reflect consumer behavior in real time. Thus, companies not only understand which products their customers value, but also how to bundle them to maximize revenue. This approach, combining advanced statistics, artificial intelligence, and cloud computing, represents a qualitative leap over classical preference estimation methods.

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